tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-441291629468823379.post5718550687249072873..comments2023-10-22T07:20:59.255-06:00Comments on If Necessary Blogging But Not Necessarily Blogging: Digging into oil price trendsConstant Vigilancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03839753866104400007noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-441291629468823379.post-48627400248745881892008-11-12T21:07:00.000-07:002008-11-12T21:07:00.000-07:00Good comments. Thanks for making them.If I rememb...Good comments. Thanks for making them.<BR/><BR/>If I remember an article I read years ago properly, in real terms oil and most other commodities have been dropping in value. I expect that as we go further on the downslope of supply, there will be more switching energy sources. Whether this can be done fast enough to compensate for the drop in energy supply is the concern.<BR/><BR/>What really interested me was the increasing slope of the price up-tick. Events such as the Baltic Dry Index you mention will end up being evidence that the credit crunch really stopped everything cold or that we are in a lot of trouble. If it is credit problems for the shippers that will resume after a fashion once credit flows again. People have to eat so I expect that will likely resume at some level.Constant Vigilancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03839753866104400007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-441291629468823379.post-82236806655729474922008-11-12T20:38:00.000-07:002008-11-12T20:38:00.000-07:00Oil has always seemed to disobey the Hotelling mod...Oil has always seemed to disobey the Hotelling model. It's a non-renewable resource, but the price just seemed to stagnate for most of the last 100 years, and only in the last 2 years did it look like it was catching.<BR/><BR/>However, now, it almost looks like oil is retracting in response to the fact that people are willing to switch sources or, at very least, conserve oil significantly.<BR/><BR/>However, the oil drop may also be a result of the Baltic Dry Index dropping 98% in the last few months. (IE. not as many people are shipping goods, so a major oil user is going to cut it's use heavily.)<BR/><BR/>We'll just have to see.MrvnMousehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03259041182030511135noreply@blogger.com