The Cons need to join AAA

Attack Ads Anonymous that is. (or What is up with the Attack Ads?: Inferring the final act of Robcon).


So they went back to the only trick the Reform Pony knows.  Attack Ads.  But why now?  So early in their mandate.  Against an interim leader.


One pundit feel this is aimed a long game:

So there is unaccustomed dissatisfaction in the land, and the government is shaky at precisely the moment it had thought it was finally solid. These new “positive” ads seem designed to adjust ominous perceptions.  

On the other end of the spectrum, a blogger leading the Robocon charge mapped out a scenario weeks ago in which an election could be forced through non confidence.
 
I think the attack ads are evidence of an incipient Harper initiated election premised upon a need to "clear the air over Robocon" so he can return to providing a "safe and strong economy".


It is apparent that Robocon was the result of a coordinated effort of the CPC national campaign.  All that is required is the final proofs.  None of the spin is working.  So far, the Beav is a good source for the data on which to base our induction.  What else can they provide on which to base a prediction on?

How about that these most diaphanous of defences are they best they have:

I don't know of any organization the size of a national political party which does not perform a post-event analysis. ...
It is also well-known that large organizations, whether they be corporations, churches, government departments or national political parties, watch media items related to their activities like a hawk. Message management, (something the Harperites treat as a religious item), requires never allowing a potentially damaging item to drift around without at least some prepared tactical response.
And that means that the same items which Alison has shown to have been in public view in those early days of May 2011 were a part of the scrutiny that most assuredly was carried out by the Harper campaign immediately after the election. They knew then that there was a bright shining light and they would have prepared for any exposure. From May 2011 to February 2012 they were trying to cover up. 
Any competent party leader would also have been aware. In May, 2011.

That would mean that Harper knew, chose not to know, or is just plain stupid. 

So they most likely did this crime, knew the inherent dangers and had a contingency plan in place.  And that plan isn't working.  There is evidence that 77 ridings were affected by this scam.  That is 5.5 times the margin of the Conservative "majority".


One could predict (as I hope) that this will lead to an election forced over this scandal.  Either called for by the courts, non-confidence could be declared or the writ might be dropped by Harper as a defence tactic as the trail leads ever closer to him.


Calling for an election would be an example of  flucht nach vorne (trying to get out of a tough situation by being even more aggressive).  Attack is all Harper knows and it has worked for him so far.  He isn't going to try something new when everything is on the line.  It also bears remembering that he loves campaigning and hates governing (the boring bits between campaigns).  And an election is an opportunity to bleed the Liberal bank accounts down even further.


It doesn't matter in the end.  As this plays out, we must remember we are dealing with a ruthless authoritarian tyrant.  He has displayed the willingness to go where no one else has to achieve and maintain dictatorial power.  He won't go easily.  He prorogued Parliament twice to avoid a confidence vote.  What will he do when he might be facing jail time?  It will be an ugly campaign.  No holds will be barred (whether ethical, legal or moral).  But it will be an opportunity to fight for our democracy.


A common gripe about Canadian history is that it is boring due to a paucity of pitched battles.  Those people should be careful what they wish for.Recommend this Post