The convention wisdom amongst the Harper Hagiogrpahers seems to have shifted from "The Facebook effect is minor" to "
How can the Liberals keep the outrage ramped up till after the Olympics" (Go to the bottom of the article). I think the conventional is lacking wisdom and is missing the reason this might be a game changer.
It is my understanding that Canadians Against Proroguing Parliament will be setting up functions to allow the general demographics of it's members to be evaluated. Aspects such as age, gender and location would be interesting but I have a hunch that we don't need that data to expect the importance of CAPP to be very large.
Facebook is a young person's game. I have an account but I only go on to join Facebook groups such as CAPP or the Left Wing Fringe Group Called Women. I just don't use it as a way to keep in touch with my friends. I would say this is the case with most of the Boomers I know. But my kids are on Facebook several times a day. For this reason I suspect that a lot of those members are "young" voters.
The path to exorcising our Conservative demons lies through mobilizing the vote of those most likely to oppose Harper. Young voters are a large untapped reservoir of such votes. Awakening them to the danger Harper represents to their future is a part of the process. And a strong performance by Ignatieff on his campus tour, which is being chronicled on youtube, is a way to show them their is another path.
Voters in past elections seem to have fallen into camps with parties looking to shift soft voters on the margin. This is especially true on the left where vote splitting amongst the anti-Conservative vote hands Harper the likelihood of at least a minority government. Changing this stasis would require either the merging/dissoluion of some of the Opposition parties or the tapping of a new pool of voters. The addition of an energized cohort youth voters eager to protect the future of Canadian democracy could be just what is needed.
Obama was able to energize lots of first time voters to break a similar log jam amongst American voters. I won't be surprised in the least if P2 has a similar effect here.